Letter to the Editor

Proposals by the UK to sign a trade deal with the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), will effectively serve to lock the UK out of the European Union indefinitely and brings little economic benefit.

The UK, it has been reported, is close to signing a deal with the 11 members of the trans-Pacific trade pact which includes Japan and Australia.

Economic gains for the UK are, however, minimal, even according to the government’s own projections - and will do little to offset the European trade losses incurred as a result of Brexit.

It has been estimated, for example, that the consequences of the deal will see an increase in our economic output (GDP) of a miniscule 0.08% over the next 15 years.

On the other side of the balance sheet, the loss of GDP due to exiting the EU single market is put conservatively by the independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) at 4% of GDP by 2030, at least 50 times greater.

Accession would also mean that the UK will not be able to rejoin the EU customs union. Since the pact requires that the UK has control over its own regulatory system, alignment of UK regulations with the EU would not be feasible, except in those areas where EU regulation passes CPTPP muster.

For those under the belief that there is a chance of the UK rejoining the EU in the foreseeable future, accession to CPTPP means that this just became a whole lot harder.

Alex Orr, Edinburgh